AI Futures Project

We are a small research group forecasting the future of AI, funded by charitable donations and grants. Read more about us here.

Our current core team is Daniel Kokotajlo, Eli Lifland, Thomas Larsen, Romeo Dean, Jonas Vollmer and Lauren Mangla. Explore our interactive model of the future of AI at aifuturesmodel.com, read our Substack, or read our AI scenarios linked below. The distributions below are our team’s probabilities on when AI’s will achieve human level coding performance.